16 January 2023

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The Market Last Week

Global equities ended mostly firmer last week, amid speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down the pace of rate hikes.


UK Markets ended the week in positive territory, after Britain’s economy unexpectedly grew in November.

The BRC like-for-like retail sales index advanced in December.

Gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly rose in November.

Industrial production dropped less than expected in November.

Manufacturing production dropped more than market anticipation in November.

Goods trade deficit widened in November.




European Markets ended the week on a positive footing, amid optimism about China’s reopening of its border.

Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index rose to its highest level in 7 months in January.

Eurozone’s industrial production rose more than expected in November.

Eurozone’s trade deficit narrowed in November.

Eurozone’s unemployment rate remained steady in November.

Germany’s industrial production rebounded in November.

Germany’s current account surplus unexpectedly widened in November.




US Markets ended the week in green, as a drop in the US consumer prices raised hopes for less aggressive rate hikes.

Consumer credit unexpectedly advanced in November.

The MBA mortgage applications rebounded in the week 06 January 2023.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to a 3-month low level in the week ended 06 January 2023.

The monthly budget deficit narrowed in December.

The Michigan consumer sentiment index advanced to an eight-month high in January.

The NFIB business optimism index fell to a 6-month low in December.

The IBD/TIPP economic optimism index fell in January.

The consumer price index (CPI) dropped for a sixth consecutive month in December.




Asian Markets ended mostly firmer last week, tracking gains in their US counterparts.

Japan reported a current account surplus in November.

Japan’s (BOP basis) trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November.

The Tokyo CPI advanced to a 40-year high in December.

Japan’s producer price index (PPI) climbed to its highest level in 42-year high in December.

Japan’s overall household spending unexpectedly dropped in November.

Japan’s coincident index unexpectedly fell in November.

Japan’s leading economic index unexpectedly eased in November.

Australia’s retail sales advanced to a record high in November.

Australia’s trade surplus unexpectedly widened in November.

Australia’s home loan approvals dropped for a tenth consecutive month in November.

China’s CPI rose in line with market expectations in December.

China’s PPI fell more than anticipated in December.

China’s house price index fell in December.




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Currency Update

The EUR ended firmer against the USD last week, following hawkish remarks by the European Central Bank (ECB) officials.
The British Pound ended stronger against the greenback last week, after UK’s economy expanded in November.
The US Dollar ended weaker against its major counterparts last week, following the US inflation data.


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World Bank cuts 2023 forecasts and warns of global recession

The World Bank, in its latest report, slashed its 2023 growth forecasts and warned that new adverse shocks could tip the global economy into a recession. The Bank indicated that it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecasted 2023 global growth at 3.0%. Moreover, global growth in 2024 is expected to pick up to 2.7%.


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The Week Ahead

Going ahead this week, investors will keep a tab on the US PPI, retail sales, Fed's Beige Book, industrial production, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and initial jobless claims. Additionally, investors await Eurozone’s CPI, current account balance and the consumer confidence index while Germany’s CPI, the PPI and ZEW indices. Also, UK’s CPI, the ILO unemployment rate, retail sales, the RICS house price index and the GfK consumer confidence index would garner significant amount of investor attention.


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